Este website utiliza cookies propias y de terceros. Alguna de estas cookies sirven para realizar analíticas de visitas, otras para gestionar la publicidad y otras son necesarias para el correcto funcionamiento del sitio. Si continúa navegando o pulsa en aceptar, consideramos que acepta su uso. Puede obtener más información, o bien conocer cómo cambiar la configuración, en nuestra Política de cookies?
Versión Española Versión Mexicana Ibercampus English Version Version française Versione italiana

miércoles, 29 de septiembre de 2021  
    en Ibercampus en  | Consejo Editorial | Quienes Somos | Ideario | Contacto | Tarifas Publicitarias | Suscribirse | RSS RSS
Capital humano
Estrategias verdes
Debates y firmas invitadas
Becas & prácticas
Empleo y Formación
Empresas y RSC
Ranking Wanabis
Denuncias de los consumidores
El Tiempo
EMPRESAS Y RSC Ampliar +  
El vapeo de Juul, de virtual monopolio a la muerte, al conocerse que compró una revista académica
Los emprendedores españoles se rebelan contra el mito del unicornio
MiCampus,en paraíso fiscal y de un hijo de la presidenta del Santander,aporta jóvenes a Centro Botin
15 universidades españolas destacan en empleabilidad, con Barcelona, UPM y Navarra al frente
Los rectores solicitan declarar el 28 de septiembre Día Internacional de la Cultura Científica
Noche Mediterránea de las Investigadoras (MedNight) en campus y centros de 9 países

"Fusionar varios rankings web permitiría integrarlos con otras herramientas de Ciencia Abierta"
"Debemos aprovechar la presidencia de Joe Biden para dar gran impulso a la gobernanza multilateral"
Escario: "Con un mínimo global del 15% se corta en seco la carrera a la baja en Sociedades"
Gobierno y agentes sociales acuerdan extender los ERTE hasta el 28-F y priorizar su formación
España 2050 aspira a crear un millón de programas breves de FP y convertir los campus en sus sedes
El 26% de los trabajadores come en casa más que antes del Covid y un 32% retorna al coche privado
Escepticismo ante el cambio de especialización productiva y comercial de LatinoAmérica con la Covid
Sólo del 16% al 1% de los investigadores iberoamericanos optan por publicar en español o portugués
La Asociación de la Prensa de Madrid (APM) pide la libertad de la corresponsal de ABC en Cuba
TENDENCIAS Ampliar +  
UPM lidera la standarización mundial de la Seda de Araña (S3I), artrópodo con 40.000 especies
Nace en Valladolid, eEvents, pionera de eventos audiovisuales
La producción constante necesita la automatización

¿Será también en esto España diferente,como indican algunos?

La inclusión juvenil lastra la estabilidad de las democracias

Redacción 16 de enero de 2019 Enviar a un amigo
Comparte esta noticia en LinkedInComparte esta noticia en FacebookComparte esta noticia en TwitterEnviar a MeneaméAñadir a del.icio.usAñadir a YahooRSS

 Yascha Mounk is used to being the most pessimistic person in the room. Mr. Mounk, a lecturer in government at Harvard, has spent the past few years challenging one of the bedrock assumptions of Western politics: that once a country becomes a liberal democracy, it will stay that way.

His research suggests something quite different: that liberal democracies around the world may be at serious risk of decline.

Mr. Mounk’s interest in the topic began rather unusually. In 2014, he published a book, “Stranger in My Own Country.” It started as a memoir of his experiences growing up as a Jew in Germany, but became a broader investigation of how contemporary European nations were struggling to construct new, multicultural national identities.

He concluded that the effort was not going very well. A populist backlash was rising. But was that just a new kind of politics, or a symptom of something deeper?To answer that question, Mr. Mounk teamed up with Roberto Stefan Foa, a political scientist at the University of Melbourne in Australia. They have since gathered and crunched data on the strength of liberal democracies.

Their conclusion, to be published in the January issue of the Journal of Democracy, is that democracies are not as secure as people may think. Right now, Mr. Mounk said in an interview, “the warning signs are flashing red.”

Early signs of decline

Political scientists have a theory called “democratic consolidation,” which holds that once countries develop democratic institutions, a robust civil society and a certain level of wealth, their democracy is secure.

For decades, global events seemed to support that idea. Data from Freedom House, a watchdog organization that measures democracy and freedom around the world, shows that the number of countries classified as “free” rose steadily from the mid-1970s to the early 2000s. Many Latin American countries transitioned from military rule to democracy; after the end of the Cold War, much of Eastern Europe followed suit. And longstanding liberal democracies in North America, Western Europe and Australia seemed more secure than ever.

But since 2005, Freedom House’s index has shown a decline in global freedom each year. Is that a statistical anomaly, a result of a few random events in a relatively short period of time? Or does it indicate a meaningful pattern?

Mr. Mounk and Mr. Foa developed a three-factor formula to answer that question. Mr. Mounk thinks of it as an early-warning system, and it works something like a medical test: a way to detect that a democracy is ill before it develops full-blown symptoms.

The first factor was public support: How important do citizens think it is for their country to remain democratic? The second was public openness to nondemocratic forms of government, such as military rule. And the third factor was whether “antisystem parties and movements” — political parties and other major players whose core message is that the current system is illegitimate — were gaining support.

If support for democracy was falling while the other two measures were rising, the researchers marked that country “deconsolidating.” And they found that deconsolidation was the political equivalent of a low-grade fever that arrives the day before a full-blown case of the flu.

Venezuela, for instance, enjoyed the highest possible scores on Freedom House’s measures of political rights and democracy in the 1980s. But those democratic practices were not deeply rooted. During that apparent period of stability, Venezuela already scored as deconsolidating on the Mounk-Foa test.

Yascha Mounk, a Harvard lecturer.

Since then, Venezuelan democracy has declined significantly. In 1992, a faction of the Venezuelan military loyal to Hugo Chávez attempted a coup against the democratically elected government. Mr. Chávez was elected president in 1998 on a wave of populist support, and he immediately passed a new constitution that consolidated his power. His government cracked down on dissent, imprisoned political opponents and shredded the country’s economy with a series of ill-planned economic overhauls.

Likewise, when Poland joined the European Union in 2004, it was hailed as an especially strong example of a post-Communist country making the transition to consolidated democracy. But Mr. Mounk and Mr. Foa found strong signs of deconsolidation during that period: As early as 2005, nearly 16 percent of Poles said they believed democracy was a “bad” or “fairly bad” way of running the country. By 2012, 22 percent of respondents said that they supported army rule. And in the mid-2000s, a series of antisystem parties began to gain traction in Polish politics, including Law and Justice, Self-Defense of the Republic of Poland, and the League of Polish Families.

Today, that fever is starting to look a lot like the flu. Law and Justice, which won the presidency and a parliamentary majority in 2015, has systematically weakened democratic institutions.

The government’s attempts to undermine the country’s constitutional tribunal, for instance, set off an investigation by the European Union. The resulting report warned that the government’s actions “endanger not only the rule of law, but also the functioning of the democratic system.”

Warning bells?

According to the Mounk-Foa early-warning system, signs of democratic deconsolidation in the United States and many other liberal democracies are now similar to those in Venezuela before its crisis.

Across numerous countries, including Australia, Britain, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Sweden and the United States, the percentage of people who say it is “essential” to live in a democracy has plummeted, and it is especially low among younger generations.

Continue reading the main story

Percentage of people who say it is “essential” to live in a democracy 




United States

New Zealand





















Decade of birth

Source: Yascha Mounk and Roberto Stefan Foa, “The Signs of Democratic Deconsolidation,” Journal of Democracy | By The New York Times 

Support for autocratic alternatives is rising, too. Drawing on data from the European and World Values Surveys, the researchers found that the share of Americans who say that army rule would be a “good” or “very good” thing had risen to 1 in 6 in 2014, compared with 1 in 16 in 1995.

That trend is particularly strong among young people. For instance, in a previously published paper, the researchers calculated that 43 percent of older Americans believed it was illegitimate for the military to take over if the government were incompetent or failing to do its job, but only 19 percent of millennials agreed. The same generational divide showed up in Europe, where 53 percent of older people thought a military takeover would be illegitimate, while only 36 percent of millennials agreed.

In the United States, Donald J. Trump won the presidential election by running as an antisystem outsider. And support for antisystem populist parties in Europe, such as the National Front in France, Syriza in Greece and the Five-Star Movement in Italy, is rising.

Of course, this is just one paper. And the researchers’ approach, like all data-driven social science, has limitations. It is only as good as the survey data that underlies it, for instance, and it does not take into account other factors that could be important to overall stability, such as economic growth. At least one prominent political scientist argues that Mr. Mounk’s and Mr. Foa’s data is not as worrying as they believe it to be.

Also, of course, correlation is not the same as causation. Although the researchers found a relationship between deconsolidation and democratic instability, that is not the same thing as proving the root causes of either factor.

“That’s only one measure,” Mr. Mounk acknowledged of his own research. “But,” he added after a pause, “it should have us worried.”

He fears that the minutiae of politics can easily distract from these more fundamental dangers. “It’s not just about what Trump will do to the E.P.A.,” he said, referring to the Environmental Protection Agency. “It really is that Trump may try to undermine liberal democracy in the United States.”

“Look, this stuff is already going on in other places,” Mr. Mounk added. “If there’s one task that we have as journalists, as academics, as thinkers, it’s to drive the stakes of this home for people.”

A version of this article appears in print on November 29, 2016, on Page A7 of the New York edition with the headline: Warning Signs ‘Flashing Red’ for Democracies. Order ReprintsToday's Paper|Subscribe

Continue reading the main story

Otros asuntos de Tendencias
Más asuntos de Tendencias
La región cerebral de la que depende el consumo de alcohol es la que regula la respuesta al peligro
7 tendencias que alteran el turismo de los españoles:el 91% de las familias ya tiene planes para2021
Accidente del autobús sin conductor que estrenaba la UAM
Los economistas urgen afrontar el envejecimiento más allá de la reforma del sistema de pensiones
El consejo editorial de Ibercampus pide aprovechar la crisis para lograr una enseñanza del sigloXXI
Competencia aconseja atacar los factores de abuso de poder en la cadena alimentaria con la nuevaLey
El mar podría aportar la cuarta parte de la alimentación mundial para 2050
El comercio online crece un 67% en España durante el segundo trimestre del año
Lanzan consulta pública para la Ley de movilidad sostenible y la financiación del transporte urbano
El retorno empresarial se mide cada vez más en cifras sociales y ecológicas, no solo económicas
Madrid,Barcelona y Bilbao apuestan por la movilidad sostenible para despejar su futuro tras COVID19
China gana cuota a EEUU en el valor de sus marcas, con Zara y  Movistar entre las 100 primeras
Los problemas Duro Felguera, agigantados por escaso precio de sus acciones y baja capitalización
Buscan oportunidades de negocio para el sector aeroespacial con órbitas muy bajas y menores costes
El voto latino en las elecciones de EEUU 2020 llegará al 13,3%
La tasación de viviendas pasa de física a digital y solo Madrid y Barcelona superan mínimos de 2012
El siglo de Asia empieza este 2020 de Juegos en Japón con temores existenciales y de salud mental
El fundador de Huawei, líder global 5G,descarta otra guerra fría y urge mejorar sistemas educativos
2019 hace historia como año desglobalizador por la guerra EEUU-China,que llega a España y suDefensa
Tendencia a la desglobalización de comercio, capitales y personas, según "Economistas"

Suscríbete gratis a nuestro boletín
Reindustrialización y digitalización van a comprometer el futuro de muchos países en este Siglo
La Inteligencia Artificial transformará drásticamente uno de cada cinco empleos actuales
Guía para ayudarse contra las invasiones a la privacidad en las relaciones laborales
La educación destaca en las demandas de más de 20 expertos para preparar el nuevo contrato social
Censura y autocensura de prensa y universidad ocultaron la corrupción del Rey, según el nuevo libro
Capitalismo progresista. La respuesta a la era del malestar
Listo el primer implante corneal trifocal para corregir vista cansada, presbicia o usos digitales
´Las redes de poder en España´ hacen que Podemos caiga en la ´jaula de hierro estatal´
Solo un 11% de las tesis publicadas en las 22 universidades de Red Vives utilizan lengua catalana
La factura de agua de grandes ciudades será reducida por riegos inteligentes aunque suba en bolsa
La lucha contra la pandemia, menos eficaz por la polarización política y social
Un documento prueba que Junta de Andalucía desvía 11 millones del COVID para salvar Canal Sur
1 Los rectores solicitan declarar el 28 de septiembre Día Internacional de la Cultura Científica
2 El BCE pone freno a los estímulos monetarios, ante los que urgen mejorar cálculo económico y social
3 Lamentables caídas
4 15 universidades españolas destacan en empleabilidad, con Barcelona, UPM y Navarra al frente
5 El 26% de los trabajadores come en casa más que antes del Covid y un 32% retorna al coche privado
6 Muertes por las vacunas Covid
7 Escepticismo ante el cambio de especialización productiva y comercial de LatinoAmérica con la Covid
8 La Piel que Habito
9 El empleo frena su racha alcista al restar 118.000 afiliados pero consolida los niveles prepandemia
10 El Gobierno plantea subir el salario mínimo la mitad de lo que se dispara la inflación
"La evolución del e-learning: de "sólo ante el peligro" al aprendizaje interactivo"
"Los profesionales con formación online están mejor preparados para la economía global"
El big data, la robótica y el Mobile Learning, principales tendencias del e-learning
Capitalismo académico precario: la ´Ubersidad´ neoliberal
Ibercampus abre debate sobre el secuestro del Consejo de Responsabilidad Social de las Empresas
El nuevo paradigma de la fiscalidad internacional: los pilares 1 y 2 de la OCDE
Aviso Legal | Política de Privacidad | Consejo Editorial | Quienes Somos | Ideario | Contacto | Tarifas Publicitarias | RSS RSS